Border squeeze! Fewer J’cans making trek through Mexico to reach US

The crowds of migrants once synonymous with Mexico’s route into the US have thinned dramatically, with shelters that struggled to find space now counting occupants on two hands.

For Jacob*, a Jamaican traveller who has made Mexico one of his favourite destinations over the years, the difference is difficult to miss.

“The biggest thing I would say is that it doesn’t look like what you would expect from everything we were seeing in the news a few years ago. You’re not seeing these huge groups of people everywhere waiting to cross. It feels much quieter,” he told THE STAR.

His observation comes as Jamaican travel to Mexico continues a striking decline. Jamaican government data show arrivals by Jamaicans peaked at 16,186 in 2022 before falling for three consecutive years to 7,091 in 2025. Between January and May this year, only 2,466 Jamaicans entered Mexico, another 12.5 per cent decline year-on-year. The fall has occurred against the backdrop of intensified US border enforcement and Mexico’s efforts to clamp down on irregular migration through its territory.

Jacob, who has travelled throughout mainland Latin America since leaving university, has returned to Mexico repeatedly, along with visits to Guatemala, Panama and Venezuela.

“Mexico especially is one of those places where I don’t feel like one trip is enough,” he said. “I don’t just travel to stay in a resort and go home. I like moving around, talking to people, understanding the place.” Those interactions have led to friendships with people working directly with migrants, including a shelter manager in Ciudad Juárez, the Mexican border city opposite El Paso, Texas. The manager recently told Jacob that the facility, which previously accommodated more than 200 migrants, was down to just nine.

“That was probably what put it into perspective for me. Somebody can tell you migration has declined by 50 or 80 per cent and it’s just a number. But when they tell you this place used to have around 200 people and now there are nine, that makes it real,” he said.

Jacob said those dwindling numbers should not be mistaken for the disappearance of migration.

“The people I’ve spoken with don’t necessarily say migration has disappeared. What they say is that the movement has changed,” he said. “People aren’t coming through in the numbers they were seeing before and getting to the US border seems much harder now.”

He said his shelter contact remembers when the facility’s halls could barely accommodate the number of people hoping to reach the US. Now, he said, “she practically can count on her fingers how many come in per month”.

Jacob said there is a significantly increased military presence around other Mexican border areas, another indication, he believes, of how much the environment has changed. During a visit in late 2025, he also met one Jamaican who had decided that continuing north was no longer worth the wait. The man opted to return home amid the increasingly difficult journey and lengthy wait to access the US asylum process.

“I have also learnt that with the US asylum system completely on lockdown, the wait time has now upped to two years. People decided to turn back,” Jacob said.

The changes are also noticeable far from the US border. Jacob said he has witnessed passengers pulled aside for extended questioning and others who did not make it through immigration.

“That’s why when I tell people immigration here is tight, I’m not saying it because I read it somewhere,” he said. “It’s something you become aware of travelling through these airports.” Even having all the expected documents, he said, does not remove the uncertainty.

“What satisfies one immigration officer may not necessarily satisfy another,” Jacob said. “You can prepare everything you’re supposed to prepare and still feel that the final decision comes down to whether that officer believes you.” Despite the changes, he said Mexico remains a place he intends to keep exploring.

*name changed to protect identity